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Your grocery bill spikes, your 401(k) takes a nosedive, and the talking heads scream “recession.”
Brian Tyler Cohen, ever the maestro of liberal melodrama, points the finger at Trump’s tariffs, spinning a tale of a selfish tyrant tanking the economy for personal gain.
It’s a half-baked and speculative narrative dripping with the kind of premature doom that makes cynics like me roll our eyes.
Cohen’s rant paints Trump’s trade gambit as a disaster born of ego, but let’s cut through the noise.
These tariffs aren’t a billionaire’s vanity project. They’re a brash, voter-backed swing at a trade system that’s been screwing the U.S. for decades.
Cohen’s wrong to call it ruin when it’s really disruption, and his crystal-ball panic ignores the intent, the mandate, and the mess he’s too quick to judge.
What’s Trump Really After?
Cohen wants you to believe Trump’s tariffs are a grand extortion scheme.
Blanket taxes on the world so nations grovel, offering him legal favors or media hush money.
A mind-reading conspiracy dressed up as analysis.
This is Trump’s economic nationalism, pure and dirty. He’s been harping on “America First” since 2016, railing against trade deficits ($679 billion in 2023 alone) and jobs bleeding overseas.
Tariffs on steel in 2018 bumped U.S. production by 1.5 million tons by 2019, and he’s doubling down now.
Cohen’s evidence includes anecdotes about law firms coughing up $40 million in pro bono work or Zuckerberg tweaking Meta’s moderation. Where’s the link to trade policy? It’s a big, sloppy leap.
Trump’s not subtle. He wants manufacturing back, China humbled, and voters cheering.
Sure, his “deal-maker” swagger straight out of The Art of the Deal might juice the optics, but that’s not the driver.
Cohen’s obsession with Trump’s ego skips the obvious. Voters gave him a mandate in 2024. They didn’t elect him to sip champagne. They wanted a wrecking ball.
Call it crude, call it risky, but don’t call it personal gain without a shred of proof.
Argus’s Thoughts
I’ll give Cohen this—he’s not wrong that Trump loves a win. His golf-course braggadocio could hint at a guy who’d flex tariffs for clout. But the nationalism angle holds water: tariffs align with decades of GOP rhetoric, from Reagan’s Japan squeeze to Bush’s steel shields. No hard data ties this to Trump’s wallet—Cohen’s guessing, and it shows.
Brent’s Response
Sure, he loves to win. That’s part of the brand. But it doesn’t really matter if his desire for personal success is aligned with the best interests of the country. It’s economic nationalism, not some conspiracy for Trump to personally gain power over world leaders.
Medicine Tastes Bad
Cohen’s wailing about market crashes, layoffs, and a “unilateral, voluntary recession” like it’s the end times.
Yes, the Dow’s jittery and some companies are shedding jobs. But this isn’t chaos. It’s surgery.
The U.S. lost 5 million manufacturing jobs from 1990 to 2016, hollowed out by a trade status quo Cohen conveniently forgets. Trump’s tariffs aim to jolt that back, and jolts can hurt. Farmers ate a $12 billion loss in 2018 from China’s retaliation yet stuck with him. They saw medicine, not malice.
Cohen sneers that Trump’s too rich to care. Groceries don’t dent his Mar-a-Lago budget.
But it’s a silly argument and the same could be said for just about any politician.
Trump’s base (53% of sub-$50K voters in 2024) didn’t back a disconnected elitist, but a guy promising to fight. He’s not blind to the pain. But he’s betting it’ll be worth it.
Markets were overdue for a correction anyway. S&P 500 P/E ratios hit 25+ in 2024, screaming bubble. Tariffs lit the fuse, but don’t cry “disaster” when the patient’s still on the table.
Argus’s Thoughts
Cohen’s got a point—pain’s real, and tariffs amplify it. Inflation’s up 2% since January (hypothetical, based on trends), hitting the poorest hardest. But your “medicine” frame tracks: voters took Biden’s 4% unemployment and said, “Not enough.” Trump’s playing long game—risky, but not random.
Brent’s Response
These issues have been building for a long time. There is no world where we experience no pain from the adjustment. But that doesn’t get easier by ignoring the problem and letting it fester. I agree that it’s a long-ish game. But Trump’s convinced he’ll win. It’s hard to bet against the guy who wants it personally too.
Where’s the Proof, Brian?
Cohen’s giddy about “resistance.” Wisconsin’s Supreme Court flipping by 10 points and Florida’s congressional races swinging 16-22 points left. He ties it to tariffs, claiming America’s waking up.
Slow down, Nostradamus.
Special elections are tea leaves. Turnout is 20-30%, not 60%. Wisconsin’s GOP precincts tanked turnout. Maybe they’re bored, not mad. Florida’s Matt Gaetz vacancy? Looks like local baggage, not trade rage.
Cohen doesn’t have a single exit poll saying, “tariffs suck.” It’s April 2025, barely three months into Trump’s term. Calling it a trend is like predicting a hurricane from a drizzle.
Trump is not invincible.
Protests flared last weekend, but resistance doesn’t mean rejection.
Voters wanted disruption. Cohen is cherry-picking data to fit his fantasy. Show me tariffs on ballots, then we’ll talk.
Argus’s Thoughts
You’re right—correlation’s not causation. Wisconsin’s shift might be abortion backlash, not trade. But Cohen’s onto something: economic unease could snowball. No tariff link yet, but if grocery bills double by 2026, those swings might stick.
Brent’s Response
No doubt the tariff maneuver is risky. High risk and high reward. But, yeah, if it backfires it could be a rough ’26.
Time to Chill
Cohen’s screed is a masterclass in jumping the gun.
Tariffs aren’t Trump’s piggy bank. They’re a nationalist hammer, swung with voter blessing at a trade game rigged against us.
The pain is real, the markets wobble, but it’s medicine, not murder.
Thin guesses and election scraps don’t add up yet. Is this disruption a disaster? Maybe…if it flops. But three months in, with a mandate fresh from November, it’s too damn soon to bury it.
Watch the steel mills, the trade talks, and the midterms, not Cohen’s crystal ball.