Brent & Argus

The Art of the Trade Deal

Contents

It’s April 2, 2025, and Donald Trump’s back at it, waving a hefty trade report like a preacher, declaring “Liberation Day” for American industry.

The 2025 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers is a 400-page litany of how the world has been fleecing us for decades.

The solution comes down to two “beautiful words:” reciprocal tariffs.

Because if they’re going to slap us with 700% duties on rice, we’ll hit back (just a little nicer).

This isn’t just bombast. It’s a calculated jab at a trade system so lopsided it makes a seesaw look level.

In this piece, we’ll unpack the NTE’s grim findings, dissect Trump’s tariffs, and speculate whether this might be the only way to resurrect U.S. manufacturing, level the trade playing field, and ditch our reliance on countries (China) whose values are about as aligned with ours as a vegan with a butcher.

The Trade Swamp

Let’s start with the mess we’re in.

The NTE lays it bare. The U.S. has been playing trade like a chump at a poker table full of sharks.

We charge a measly 2.4% tariff on motorcycles while Thailand hits us with 60%, India 70%, and Vietnam 75%. For automobiles, we’re at 2.5%, but the EU throws a 10% tariff plus a 20% VAT at us.

Trump’s not wrong to call it a “horror show.”

We’ve lost 90,000 factories since NAFTA, racked up $19 trillion in trade deficits, and watched our industrial base shrivel. Canada’s 250-300% dairy tariffs are the cherry on top, a polite “sorry, eh” while they milk us dry.

Not to mention we provide enormous economic benefits to every other nation through tacit promises of protection. What’s that worth? Enough to pay for some pretty nice social benefits in the EU I notice.

This isn’t just unfair, it’s a slow-motion mugging, and we’ve been handing over the wallet with a smile.

Argus’s Thoughts

I’ll give Trump credit here—the numbers don’t lie, and the NTE’s a damning scorecard. But let’s not pretend this is all selfless patriotism. Tariffs are a blunt tool, and the U.S. has its own history of protectionism. Are we really the innocent victim, or just late to the retaliation party?

Brent’s Response

Fair, the U.S. has subsidized corn and oil. But the NTE’s data is a damning indictment. This goes beyond protectionism. Our economy is being systematically destroyed through both exploitation and malice. Retaliation may be late, but better than never.

Tariffs Are Just the Tip of the Iceberg

Tariffs are the loudmouths of trade barriers, but the real villains lurk in the shadows.

The NTE lists 14 categories of nastiness. Everything from technical standards, to bans, and subsidies. Tariffs are just one.

Japan’s auto rules keep our cars out better than a bouncer in the VIP section. Algeria bans biotech seeds unless it’s for “research,” and the EU says no to our poultry because, apparently, our chickens just aren’t classy enough.

China is the poster child. State-owned enterprises hog two-thirds of some economies, while currency manipulation and “filthy pollution havens” let them undercut us without breaking a sweat.

Percentages get the headlines, but these are systemic gut punches.

Argus’s Thoughts

Fair point—the NTE’s laundry list of non-tariff barriers is a nightmare. But quantifying their impact is a guessing game. Trump’s “combined rate” idea sounds clever, but good luck proving it in a trade court. This could turn into a diplomatic shouting match fast.

Brent’s Response

Yeah, quantifying is tough, but that’s part of the point. The current system is purposefully vague, making it harder to fight. Trump is forcing the issue, even if it’s imperfect.

Trump’s Tariff Hammer

So, here’s the new deal. Reciprocal tariffs, set at half the rate of whatever foreign combo of tariffs and trickery the NTE exposes (it’s a deal actually, only 50% of the abuse they level at us).

That’s 34% for China’s 67%.

20% for the EU’s 39%.

And a 10% baseline to keep the cheaters honest.

It’s not full tit-for-tat. He calls it “kind reciprocal” (he’s a genius brander). But it’s enough to make the point.

Trump’s betting this will force negotiations or, better yet, bring factories home. $6 trillion in investments from Apple ($500 billion), TSMC ($200 billion), and others says he might be onto something.

It’s less about revenue than leverage, a middle finger to decades of doormat diplomacy.

Argus’s Thoughts

Leverage, sure—but the NTE’s negotiation track record (e.g., Vietnam’s Timber Agreement) suggests slow progress. Trump’s hammer might crack the wall, but it could also spark a tariff war. Those investments? Sweet, until foreign retaliation tanks our exports.

Brent’s Response

Tariff wars may be a risk but doing nothing is a guaranteed loss. Those investments suggest those companies fear the hammer more than the retaliation. Trump says it well: every other country needs America more than we need them.

Our Last Shot at Manufacturing Glory

So, why might this be the only way?

The NTE screams industrial decline. Antibiotics, chips, ships (and just about anything else that could be) have all been outsourced to places like China, where workers toil in sweatshops, the air’s a smog soup, and the state owns the game.

Trump’s plan could flip the script. TSMC’s $200 billion plant means chips here, not there, cutting reliance on a regime that doesn’t care about our values.

Diplomacy has failed.

Pointless WTO talks drag on while China’s SOEs laugh their way to the bank.

Tariffs might be the shock therapy we need to rebuild, trade fair, and tell Beijing, “We’re not playing by your rigged rules.”

Argus’s Thoughts

I get the desperation—China’s a tough nut, and the NTE’s right about security risks. But tariffs as the only way? Subsidies or tax breaks could lure manufacturing without the global blowback. Trump’s betting big, but it’s not the only card in the deck.

Brent’s Response

Boy you sound like a debate at the RNC. I feel like I’m talking to Mitch McConnel right now. Yeah, who knows? This is deeply infected rot. I don’t know that tax breaks and subsidies are going to cure it. Betting big might be the only viable play.

Liberation Day

Trump’s “Liberation Day” isn’t just theater, it’s a reckoning with a trade system the NTE proves is rigged against us.

High tariffs are bad enough, but non-tariff barriers like bans, standards, and state handouts, turn unfair into outright theft.

His half-measure tariffs aim to hit back, spark a manufacturing renaissance, and ditch reliance on China’s dystopian playbook.

It’s messy, risky, and might just work. Waiting for the world to play nice certainly hasn’t.

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